[사건의내막 / 문홍철 기자] = 재정경제부가 최근 우리 경제에 대해 수출이 큰 폭으로 증가하고 투자가 양호한 증가세를 보이는 가운데, 소비는 완만하게 개선되는 등 견조한 경기회복 흐름이 이어지고 있다고 평가했다.
재경부는 16일 발표한 '10월 최근경제동향'에서 우리 경제에 대해 이 같이 진단했다.
8월 산업활동동향 주요지표는 전산업생산, 소매판매, 설비투자에서 감소했다.
생산은 건설업이 전월비 1.9%, 전년비 1.3% 증가하고 서비스업이 전월비 0.5% 증가했으나 광공업에서 전월비 4.8% 감소하며 전산업생산이 전월비 1.3% 감소했다.
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▲ 최근 경제동향 고용률 및 실업률 추이(자료=재정경제부) ©
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지출은 소매판매가 전월비 1.8% 줄어들고 설비투자는 전월비 9.5% 감소했다.
9월 수출은 반도체·컴퓨터·화장품 수출 확대 등으로 전년동월비 83.5% 증가했고, 일평균 수출액은 56억 3000만 달러로 전년동월비 104.9% 증가했다.
9월 소비자심리지수(CSI)는 106.6으로 전월비 2.1p 올랐고 전산업 기업심리지수(CBSI)는 99.1로 전월비 0.5p 하락했다. 10월 기업심리 전망은 99.6으로 전월과 같았다.
8월 경기동행지수(순환변동치)는 0.5p 상승했고 선행지수는 0.1p 하락했다.
한편 9월 취업자는 전년동월비 11만 3000명 증가하면서 전월 대비 증가폭이 축소됐고, 실업률은 2.0%로 전년동월비 0.1%p 하락했다.
9월 소비자물가는 2.9% 올랐지만 전월 3.1% 대비 상승폭이 축소됐다. 식료품·에너지 제외 지수는 2.8%, 농산물·석유류 제외 지수는 2.7%, 생활물가지수는 2.5% 상승했다.
9월 금융시장은 원/달러 환율이 하락하고 국고채 금리가 상승했다. 8월 주택시장은 매매가격이 전월비 0.32%, 전세가격은 전월비 0.35% 올랐다.
재경부는 다만, 중동전쟁에 따른 불확실성이 다소 확대된 가운데 고유가에 따른 물가 상승 압력, 취약계층·부문의 어려운 고용 여건 등 민생부담은 지속되고 있고, 글로벌 경제는 완만한 성장세를 이어가고 있으나 중동전쟁 및 미국 관세부과 조치 관련 불확실성이 상존하고 있다고 봤다.
정부는 중동전쟁 영향 최소화를 위해 주요품목 수급관리에 만전을 기하면서 성장의 온기가 경제 전반으로 확산할 수 있도록 민생안정과 양극화 완화를 위한 정책 노력을 강화할 방침이다.
penfree1@hanmail.net
*아래는 위 기사를'구글 번역'으로 번역한 영문 기사의[전문]입니다. '구글번역'은 이해도 높이기를 위해 노력하고 있습니다. 영문 번역에 오류가 있을 수 있음을 전제로 합니다.<*The following is [the full text] of the English article translated by 'Google Translate'. 'Google Translate' is working hard to improve understanding. It is assumed that there may be errors in the English translation.>
Government: "Korean Economy Shows Robust Recovery; Challenges to Livelihoods and Uncertainties Persist"
October Economic Trends Report: Strong Growth in Exports and Solid Gains in Investment
Consumption Shows Moderate Improvement; Focus Intensifies on Stabilizing Livelihoods and Reducing Economic Disparities
[The Inside Story / Reporter Moon Hong-cherl] = The Ministry of Finance and Economy has assessed that the Korean economy continues to exhibit a robust recovery, characterized by a significant surge in exports, solid growth in investment, and a moderate improvement in consumption.
The Ministry provided this assessment in its "October Economic Trends" report, released on the 16th.
Key indicators for industrial activity in August showed declines across total industrial production, retail sales, and facility investment.
Regarding production, while the construction sector grew by 1.9% month-on-month (and 1.3% year-on-year) and the service sector rose by 0.5% month-on-month, a 4.8% month-on-month drop in the mining and manufacturing sector led to a 1.3% month-on-month decline in total industrial production.
In terms of expenditure, retail sales fell by 1.8% month-on-month, and facility investment decreased by 9.5% month-on-month.
Exports in September surged by 83.5% year-on-year, driven by increased shipments of semiconductors, computers, and cosmetics. The average daily export value reached $5.63 billion, marking a 104.9% increase compared to the same month last year.
The Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) for September stood at 106.6, up 2.1 points from the previous month, while the Composite Business Sentiment Index (CBSI) for all industries was 99.1, down 0.5 points month-on-month. The business sentiment outlook for October stood at 99.6, remaining unchanged from the previous month.
In August, the coincident composite index (cyclical component) rose by 0.5 points, while the leading composite index fell by 0.1 points.
Meanwhile, the number of employed persons in September increased by 113,000 compared to the same month last year—a smaller year-on-year gain than in the previous month—while the unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 2.0%.
Consumer prices rose by 2.9% in September, a smaller increase than the 3.1% recorded in the previous month. The index excluding food and energy rose by 2.8%, the index excluding agricultural products and petroleum products by 2.7%, and the cost-of-living index (consumer price index for daily necessities) by 2.5%.
In the financial markets, the KRW/USD exchange rate declined in September, while yields on government bonds rose. In the housing market, prices for outright sales (maemae) and long-term deposit-based rentals (jeonse) increased by 0.32% and 0.35%, respectively, from the previous month.
The Ministry of Economy and Finance noted that while the global economy continues to grow at a moderate pace, uncertainties have somewhat intensified due to the conflict in the Middle East. Furthermore, the ministry highlighted persistent burdens on the public, including upward pressure on prices from high oil prices and difficult employment conditions for vulnerable groups and sectors. It also pointed out that uncertainties remain regarding the Middle East conflict and potential tariff measures by the United States.
To minimize the impact of the Middle East conflict, the government plans to ensure the stable supply and demand of key commodities. Additionally, it intends to strengthen policy efforts aimed at stabilizing the livelihoods of the public and easing economic polarization, ensuring that the benefits of economic growth spread throughout the entire economy.
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